Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Market Wave: Dow Down 170 Points in 90 Minutes

Today's last 90 minutes (22 September) should not be ignored. Stocks were up before Fed announcement and extended gains afterward. However, there gains were short-lived as Dow lost 170 points, 20 for SPX, in last 90 minutes.

It's just like that everyone was heading toward the exit at the same time right before the door was closed! Some already called "IT'S OVER!"

It might. However, I am not very convinced that the top is in. I would rather call it a rehearsal. Why? The wave C of (Y), started on Aug 17th, seems missing one last wave [v] up thrust. I think we are still in wave [iv] of C of (Y), and it will take an additional 2 to 3 days to finish before the final wave [v] of C.

Also Dow reached 9917.99 today, only 92 points to 10000. That psychological number will work like a magnet to attract index up. CNBC will declaim victory there: "Recession is over!", "A new bull market!" blah blah ... ...

Giving market a little bit more time also fits into my US dollar wave count. Dollar made a new intraday low $75.83. But Gold remains beneath last Thursday's $1024.20 high. Gold and Silver diverged with dollar. I would like to see dollar's new low and Gold's new high to be synchronized with stock market.

Another interesting point: Dow Transports ($TRAN), Financials (BKX) and Utilities did not confirm today's intraday high neither.

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