Game Over? (1): 1.7 Points Away

Here is my short term primary count for this bear market rally started from March 2009. I have been talking about this count for a while. My previous post "Bear Market Rally Top" has the count from Oct 2007 high to Mar 2009 low (this chart does not label it correctly). At this moment, we are in 4 of C of (Y) and we need a last 5 of C up wave to complete this more than 6-month bear market rally.

In terms of proportion and wave pattern, B of (Y) seems smaller than 2 of C. Normally we expect waves of larger degree to be larger. The potential problem on this count, again, once Dow comes under 9630.20 (1039.47 in S&P500), the previous wave 1 high from August 28 on this interpretation shown on above chart, I have to eliminate this primary wave count from consideration. "Wave 4 never moves beyond the end of wave 1", that is the rule. This kind of overlap has already occurred in Dow Transports ($TRAN) and Dow US Financials Index ($DJUSFN). I am not sure that these two are leading on the downside, or will "catch up". If more and more major sectors show same wave 1- 4 overlaps, the odds will favor the scenario that we have seen the top already. That alternative count will change B of (Y) to where the 2 is in the chart, and C and (Y) to 3.

Friday, S&P500 hit the intraday low at 1041.17 ---- 1.7 points away to call "GAME OVER!".