Dollar Story (5): We Are Close

I posted above chart 2 days ago and I expected a lower low. Today UUP briefly broke under 22.54, the September 23 low, and $USD index also declined under its September 23 low 75.827. This indicates that wave 5 down is not quite finished yet. But we are close to the bottom.

If wave 5 = wave 1,
then target of wave 5 = 24.43 - (26.83 - 24.80) = 22.40

Inside wave 5,
If wave [5] = 0.618 * wave [3],
Target of wave [5] = 23 - 0.618 * (23.68 -22.61) = 22.34

I am expecting a MACD cross down on above daily chart to trigger the final sell off on dollar, and then MACD will probably have a triple negative divergences.


SPX seems to be trapped in a trading range from 1019 to 1070. So many different wave interpretations and alternative counts. I do not have any preference so far. Let us watch the dollar closely because its wave pattern is much clearer than overall market. More important, when dollar goes up, SPX will go down.