Thursday, October 22, 2009

An Email One Year Ago - Wave 3 of 3

This is the email I sent to my friends on October 04, 2008, when the most powerful wave 3 of (3) of Primary Wave [1] kicked off.

"Just checked some charts. I think we are in BIG trouble now"

"Dow will go under 10000 in next few days, if not on Monday. S&P500 will be under 1000 this month, if not in next week. We will see 1000 points down in one single day on Dow, and S&P500 will hit to 950-970 low this month."

"The worst case on financial side: C, JPM, BAC, GS, MS should be cut in half. I hope that C can keep alive longer after it decided not to merger with WB, and I believe that finally C can not keep it current status as it is now. It maybe gone forever or downsize into few small ones. Buffet's holding WFC will go down as well due to the WB merger, then the whole financial will collapse. It may take longer than I think. It also possible that the whole insurance industry collapses earlier than the left gigantic banks. So far 12 regional banks have gone, the number should go up to 10 times at least, and that is why FDIC needs UNLIMITED backup from congress, like Fannie and Freddie. FDIC is holding up taking over more bankrupt banks only because itself needs the bailout bill to get passed first."

"Watch it closely and at least keep 100% of your 401K in bond, if you can not short the market"

Looking back, I think I was right for most of my projections. And now, one year later, I think we are right at another critical point similar to that one. What you need to do is the same: "Watch it closely and at least keep 100% of your 401K in bond or just in money market fund, if you can not short the market"

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