Thursday, October 1, 2009

Game Over? (3): Wave Pattern Says Yes!!!

Dow broke below 9630.20 on Wednesday, around 11:00 this morning SPX went under 1039.47, and NASDAQ broke the wave [1] of C high in 10 minutes right before the close bell. The fact that three major indices all decline below wave [1] of C high in 2 trading sessions eliminated my primary (bull) count. So based on Elliott Wave Theory, the wave pattern called "Game Over".

In the first chart, I have the bear market trend lines connecting March low and July low for Dow, SPX and NASDAQ. Those trend lines are main support during the 6-month bear market rally started from March low. You can see both SPX (red line) and NASDAQ (green line) already closed under their trend lines. This is a strong signal that market peaked at 1080 and the trend reversed to down side.


Next chart, daily MACD diverges with price movement and already crossed down. The volume has been decreasing as market goes up. So technicals do not seem to support an upside movement any more.

The chart shows my curent wave count, which is my alternative before. Our bear market rally peaked at 1080 and we started a new down trend since September 24.

Conclusion: Game is probably Over!

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