Saturday, November 21, 2009

Deflation vs. Inflation

Charts from: www.dshort.com


The October 2009 Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) is 216.177. The annualized inflation rate computed from this number is -0.18%, which marks the eighth consecutive month of deflation.

Why does Fed so desperately want inflation? Because our economy can not recover in deflation. But even with so much stimulus money we put into the market, we just can not boost the CPI up enough.

There is no inflation yet, and we are still in the deflation nightmare. Investors have been told to buy gold to fight inflation. If there is no inflation, why do we fight it? And if we are in inflation, why only gold price made new high? Platinum, Silver, Copper, and agricultural products are still below last year's high, and oil and the CRB index are still below their highs of October 21.

We may see a little improvement in next few months, but the overall economy has a long way to come out of the deflation.

No comments:

Post a Comment