Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Dollar Story (8): New Record High Volume

Look at the tremendous volume today on daily UUP chart. Similar situation happened when dollar bottomed at $22.64 one year ago.


If we count wave [ii] as an expanded flat a-b-c wave correction, wave c is 1.618 of wave a in length and wave [ii] retraces exactly 0.618 of wave [i]. If the count is correct, next major move will be a powerful third-wave rally.

The alternative count would label wave [i] at $22.81 high, and we are in first wave a leg correction of wave [ii].

Gold made a new high to $1063 yesterday and carried the gold bulls to 91%, fueled by the news that India's Central Bank bought 200 metric tons gold from IMF. However silver failed to confirm gold's push.

To play on the dollar, gold and silver, I would rather short silver or go long on UUP than directly short gold. Why? I think Chinese will buy the left 300 metric tons of gold sooner or later.

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